Er staan inderdaad heel veel details in, maar het principe is vrij simpel. Ze pakken een aantal parameters die van alle spelers bekend zijn. En dan geven ze een gewicht aan die parameters en tellen ze ze bij elkaar op. Dan krijg je een schatting van de transferwaarde. De gebruikte parameters:
- The variable [contract] refers to the remaining contract duration (number of days) of the player at the owner club.
- The variable [age] refers to the age at transfer (the younger the better).
- The variables [exp_gk], [exp_cb], [exp_fb], [exp_md] and [exp_of] refer to the overall experience (minutes in official senior games) of players, according to their position, during the 24 months preceding the transfer, weighted by the sporting level of the clubs and competitions in which the games were played.
- The variable ([dynpro]) refers to players whose recent experience level (last 12 months) progressed with respect to the 12 previous months and that, by considering the economic and sporting levels of their club of employment, still have a margin to pursue an upward career path in the following months.
- The variable ([dynpro]) refers to players whose recent experience level (last 12 months) decreased with respect to the 12 previous months and that, by considering the economic and sporting levels of their club of employment, still have a margin to pursue a downward career path in the following months.
- The variable [goal] refers to the number of goals scored during the 24 months preceding the transfer weighted by the sporting level of the leagues and competitions in which they were scored.
- The variable [assist] refers to the number of successful assists achieved during the 12 months preceding the transfer weighted by the sporting level of the leagues and competitions in which they were made.
- The variable [pass] refers to the number of accurate passes achieved per minute played (at least 270′) during the 12 months preceding the transfer weighted by the sporting level of the leagues and competitions in which they were made.
- The variable [dribble] refers to the number of successful dribbles achieved per minute played (at least 270′) during the 12 months preceding the transfer weighted by the sporting level of the leagues and competitions in which they were made.
- The variable [ateam] refers to players who have participated in national A-team matches since the start of their career, weighted by the level of the national team represented, calculated by considering the average experience of players capped.
- The variable [buyclub] refers to the economic level of the recruiting club.
- The variable [inflat] is the average value of the 100 largest transfer fees completed on a global level during each of the last four transfer windows, which allows us to take inflation (or deflation) into account.
Als je ze intensief volgt en zelf inschat hoe goed de spelers zijn, kun je inderdaad soms een betere schatting maken (zoals bij Teze wellicht het geval). Maar als je naar de parameters hierboven kijkt is het logisch dat Teze vrij hoog ingeschat wordt: hij heeft interlandvoetbal gespeeld (voor een vrij goed land) en hij heeft vrij veel ervaring op het hoogste niveau. Die twee parameters wegen waarschijnlijk vrij zwaar in dit model. Dan is het ook logisch dat Madueke niet zo hoog gewaardeerd wordt, heeft er tijden naast gestaan. Ook Mauro heeft nog niet de meeste ervaring, en wellicht wordt hij ook nog beoordeeld als aanvaller, terwijl we hem nu als verdediger zien (dat weet ik niet zeker though). Ze zullen in ieder geval veel verschillende gewichten per parameter geprobeerd hebben, en blijkbaar leidt deze samenstelling toch tot het beste resultaat.